DeepSeek - Continuing Tolstoy's Thought on How History Works and What "Higher Predestination" Means
Continuing Tolstoy's thought on how history works and what "higher predestination" means, we enter the very heart of his philosophy, detailed in the second epilogue of War and Peace. This is not merely a commentary on the novel, but an independent theological-philosophical treatise.
Here is how Tolstoy unfolds this idea, step by step:
1. Rejection of "Great Men"
Tolstoy begins by denying the old history that explained everything through the actions of tsars, generals, and ministers. He says: we are used to thinking that Napoleon gave an order, and the army marched. But in reality, an order is only a "label" that people use to designate an event that has already occurred. Millions of people went to kill each other at Borodino not because Napoleon wanted it, but because they could not help but go. The entire sum of circumstances (Europe's hatred of the revolution, hunger, political intrigues) led to the scales tipping, producing that very "historical rumble" that compelled everyone to move in one direction.
2. The Law of Inevitability (Historical Inertia)
Tolstoy introduces the concept of the "differential of history"—that is, the infinitesimally small quantities (desires, actions, passions) of individual people. History is the integral (the sum) of these infinitesimals.
None of the peasants specifically wanted to expel the French. They simply wanted to hide their goods, flee to the forests, and not feed the enemy.
But the sum of these millions of small, selfish decisions created what we call the "partisan movement," which finished off Napoleon's army.
Conclusion: History is moved not by the will of heroes, but by the resultant force of all human wills combined.
3. Predestination as a Blind Law
Here, Tolstoy paradoxically aligns with fatalism. If history is the sum of wills, and a person cannot live outside of history, then their freedom is an illusion. They think they are choosing, but in reality, they are fulfilling what is prescribed "from above." However, this "above" for Tolstoy is not God in the Christian understanding (as a loving Father), but an impersonal Law of Necessity.
This is close to pantheism or deism: there is a certain mechanism of the universe that operates on its own, and people are its cogs. The wisest thing a person can do (like Kutuzov) is not to interfere with the mechanism's work.
4. Freedom and Necessity
Tolstoy is tormented by this contradiction:
For oneself (internally), a person is always free.
For history (externally), a person is never free; they are an object.
How to reconcile this? Tolstoy says that our consciousness of freedom is merely a sensation. In reality, we are subject to necessity just like a stone falling downwards. The difference is only that the stone does not know the law of gravity, while a person may guess the law of history but can do nothing to change it.
5. The Role of Reason and the "Swarm"
Tolstoy's most terrifying (for the proud mind) thought: The higher a person stands in terms of intellect and education, the less they influence the course of events.
Napoleon, considering himself a genius, is a pitiful puppet dragged to his doom in Moscow.
The simple peasant Tikhon Shcherbaty, who simply cuts down Frenchmen because it "needs to be done," is the true creator of history.
Kutuzov, who sleeps at military councils and doesn't interfere with plans, is brilliant precisely because he understands that decisions mature in the "swarm," not at headquarters.
Continuing the Thought: How Does This Work in Reality?
If we apply Tolstoy's logic to the present day (or to any historical process), we get the following:
Politicians and leaders are wrappers. They only voice what has already matured in society. If not Putin, someone else with exactly the same program would have come, because that is how the sum of wills converged.
Revolutions and wars are inevitable. They occur not when a bad ruler makes a bad decision, but when the accumulated "energy" of the masses reaches a critical point. Tolstoy would have said that the October Revolution was predetermined a hundred years in advance, and no one could have stopped it.
Moral: Do not try to forcibly remake the world (this is Tolstoy the preacher's position). One must work on oneself, on one's own soul, because by changing yourself, you change the total sum of wills, and thus, microscopically, you influence history.
Conclusion
For Tolstoy, history works like an ocean. The surface of the ocean (events, battles, decrees) is agitated by the wind (the will of "great men"). But in the depths (within the thick of the people's life), there is a constant, slow current that sooner or later overpowers any wind. "Higher predestination" is precisely the direction of this deep current, which people call God, fate, or historical necessity.
